Market & Economy Update | July 31, 2025

Hi, it’s Mindy Cook, your favorite financial advisor in Oklahoma! In this 2-minute video, I’m breaking down what’s happening in the markets and economy—from inflation and interest rates to market rebounds and tariff talk. If you stayed invested through the spring dip, you’ve likely seen strong returns. I’ll explain what the latest data means for your financial plan and how discipline continues to pay off for long-term investors. Questions about how this impacts you? Let’s connect!

Video transcription:

Hi, it’s Mindy, your favorite financial advisor! As we head into fall, I want to give you a quick update on what’s happening in the markets and the economy—and what it means for you.

Let’s start with the big picture.
After that big tariff-driven dip back in April, markets have bounced back impressively. Most major indices are near all-time highs, and international stocks have actually led the way this year. If you stayed invested through the noise, you likely saw a strong recovery. The S&P 500 is up over 8% year to date, while the MSCI International stock index is up nearly 19%. As for bonds, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index is up 3.7% for the year.

Inflation is still a factor, although much improved, with the CPI rising 2.7% year-over-year as of June.

Interest rates remain steady at 4.25 to 4.50%, with the Fed projecting two rate cuts by the end of the year. This has become a major point of political contention which we’ll be watching closely.

The labor market is mixed. Unemployment is low at 4.1%, but we’re seeing slower hiring—especially for younger workers—and a rise in long-term unemployment.
On the trade front, tariffs continue to make headlines, but markets seem to be taking it in stride this time. The average tariff rate has jumped from 2.4% in 2024 to around 18% now, but so far it hasn’t rattled investor confidence the way it did earlier this year.

Now, a quick word on perspective.
April was a reminder of how fast markets can dip—and how quickly they can rebound. Investors who stayed the course through that downturn saw potential gains of up to 28% from the lows. That’s why discipline matters. Staying invested, even when it feels uncomfortable, continues to be one of the most powerful things you can do.

If you have questions about how any of this applies to your plan, or if you’ve had any changes this summer—such as a new job or other life transition—don’t hesitate to reach out.